Wellplan™’s blowout-module for calculation of probabilistic flow rates, duration and discharged volumes is based on BLOWFLOW™, the world leading engine for probabilistic multiphase flow.
Prior multiphase blowout engines have been deterministic, but the latest requirements from the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association require a firm probabilistic risk management approach to such calculations. BLOWFLOW was developed by IRIS (International Research Institute of Stavanger) on behalf of several leading operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) to meet these new requirements.
Since there are large uncertainties involved at the stage when this analysis is performed, a stochastic modelling approach (e.g. Monte Carlo simulations) is used. This approach is combined with advanced models for hydraulic modelling, blowout duration mechanisms, and well kill mechanisms, such as Capping topside or subsea, bridging, relief well kill method, and gas coning.
BLOWFLOW supports all relevant probability distributions:
- Single value (for deterministic results, equals older multiphase hydraulic engines)
- Uniform distribution
- Triangular distribution
- Piecewise linear distribution
- Gaussian distribution
- Generic distribution
- Exponential distribution
- Weibull distribution
- Trapezium distribution
- Tailed triangle distribution
By incorporating BLOWFLOW’s probabilistic engine, Oliasoft Wellplan offers better modeling of blowout risk than competitor systems that rely on outdated deterministic engines.